NATIONAL HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS (Gallup tracking poll; 10/31-11/2; 2983 voters surveyed nationally; margin of error + or -2 %)
Barack Obama 54%
John McCain 41%
Bad news for John McCain: the Gallup tracking poll shows no sign at all that he's about to pull off a Truman Defeats Dewey-style upset. In fact, the trend on the final weekend of the race is all in Obama's direction. Obama has jumped in the tracking poll to a 13-point lead. And among LIKELY voters Gallup says Obama will win by 11 points. Among voters who SAY they're likely to vote, Obama leads by 11; among those who say so and also actually voted in 2004, that lead is also 11. It was down to just three last Thursday.
The latest Pew Research poll shows Obama's lead sliced by more than half, from a whopping 16 points to just seven. Sixteen seemed way too high last week; seven seems a lot more realistic. Our new CBS News poll puts Obama up by 11 among likely voters. The latest Fox poll, though, shows a dead heat. Somebody is going to be wrong next Tuesday night!
FYI, the Gallup tracking poll has a pretty good record. In 2004, the final Gallup Poll gave Bush a two-point lead, and he beat Kerry by 2.4%.
OBAMA VS. MCCAIN - LATEST CBS NEWS/N.Y. TIMES NATIONAL POLL: (10/30-11/1; 804 likely voters; MOE + or - 4%)
Obama-Biden 54%
McCain-Palin 41%
Obama's restored the 13-point lead he enjoyed last week; McCain had cut it to 11. But weekend polling finds Obama staying strong to the finish. Most voters have made up their minds, and they say they've made them up for good.
Obama has a good approval rating, with 51% saying they have a favorable opinion of him, vs. 34% unfavorable. McCain, meanwhile, is in trouble - only 41% see him favorably while 43% don't. A net favorability rating of minus-2 does not bode well for one's election. McCain does have a better chance of picking up those undecideds, though; many more are Republicans than Democrats, and a lot of them are former Bush voters.
GWU BATTLEGROUND/TARRANCE-LAKE NATIONAL POLL
(800 likely voters, rolling tracking poll, 10/27-30; MOE + or - 3.5%)
Obama-Biden 49%
McCain-Palin 45%
This is a tracking poll I like because it has an excellent track record, and it's run by two pollsters, one a well-regarded Republican and the other a well-regarded Democrat.
ABC NEWS-WASHINGTON POST TRACKING POLL
(10/29-11/1; 2172 likely voters surveyed; MOE + or - 2.5%)
CNN NATIONAL POLL
(10/30-11/1; 1017 voters; MOE + or - 3.5%)
Obama-Biden 53%
McCain-Palin 46%
FOX NEWS NATIONAL POLL
(10/28-29; 924 likely voters; MOE + or - 3%)
Obama-Biden 47%
McCain-Palin 44%
NBC NEWS-WASHINGTON POST POLL
(10/17-20; 1159 voters; MOE + or - 2.9%)
Obama-Biden 52%
McCain-Palin 42%
PEW RESEARCH POLL (10/29-11/1; 2587 likely voters; MOE + or - 2%)
Obama-Biden 49%
McCain-Palin 42% BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLS:
State polls tend to lag behind the national numbers. But Obama is building significant leads in almost all of the swing states now. Florida, Missouri and Indiana are still up for grabs. The rest of them are either safely in Obama's column now, or leading strongly his way. It is very difficult to project a win for John McCain based on the state-by-state polling.
The Electoral College map projections give Obama a significant lead, with well over the 270 electoral votes needed for victory right now. Click on the "Electoral College Votes" button above for the latest interactive map.
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